Abstract

Astheworldgrappleswithshiftingdemographics,Indiastandsattheepicentreofaprofound transformation. This research delves into the intricate interplay of culture, fertility, and policy, dissecting the enigma of declining Total Fertility Rates (TFRs). Global trends are juxtaposed withtheIndiancontext.ThepaperchallengesthevalidityofMalthusianprinciplesandexplores the multifaceted causes behind India’s dwindling fertility rates. Consequences ripple across generations: an aging populace, labour shortages, and an impending birth crisis. Drawing insights from international experiences, the paper proposes tailored policy interventions. It advocates for the adoption of a nationwide Two-Child Policy in states with TFRs nearing or exceeding 2.0, while recommending a Three-Child Policy to promote sustainable growth in regions where rates fall below 1.0. As India navigates through this intricate terrain, the pursuit of equilibrium emerges as the overarching goal a future where cultural heritage, fertility aspirations, and pragmatic policy converge harmoniously.

• 1.   Agarwal, A., & et al. (2015). A unique view on male infertility around the globe. Reprod Biol Endocrinol, 37.
• 2.   Aitken, R. (2020a). The male is significantly implicated as the cause of unexplained infertility. Semin Reprod Med, 3-20.
• 3.   Aitken, R. J. (2022). The changing tide of human fertility. Human Reproduction, 37(4), 629-638. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/ deac011.
• 4.   Ambwani, M. V. (2023, July 28). Shrinking households: 50% of Indian families are nuclear. The Hindhu: Bussiness Line. Retrieved from https:// www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/ shrinking-households-50-of-indian-families-are nuclear/article67126676.ece.
• 5.   Bussiness Standand. (2024, March 26). Lancet projects further fall in India's fertility rate, raises concern. Retrieved from www.business-standard. com: https://www.business-standard.com/ india-news/lancet-projects-further-fall-in-india-s fertility-rate-raises-concern-124032500413_1.html
• 6.   Cleland, J. (2008). Trends in Human Fertility. International Encyclopedia of Public Health, Second Edition, 2, 212-218. Retrieved from http://dx.doi. org/10.1016/B978-0-12-803678-5.00470-7
• 7.   Dyson, T. (2010). Population and Development: The Demographic Transition. London, UK: Zed Books.
• 8.   Govt of India. (2022, March). National Family Health Survey(NFHS-5), 2019–21(NFHS- 5)India Report. Retrieved from ruralindiaonline.org: https:// ruralindiaonline.org/en/library/resource/ national-family-health-survey-nfhs-5-2019-21 india/
• 9.   Ha Park, E. (2020). Ultra-low Fertility and Policy Response in South Korea: Lessons from the Case of Japan. Ageing International, 45, 191-205.
• 10.   Haub, C. (2009). Fertility in India: Trends and Prospects. Population Reference Bureau.
• 11.   Jiyeon Yoon, K., Sunghee Kim, H., & Jihyun Jang. (2022). The relationship between changes in the korean fertility rate and policies to encourage fertility. BMC Public Health, 22.
• 12.   Kearney, A., & White, K. (2016). Examining the psychosocial determinants of women’s decisions to delay childbearing. Hum Reprod, 1776-1787.
• 13.   Kurashima, S., & Asahi, Y. (2022). Analysis of Declining Fertility Rate in Japan by Focusing on TFR and Women Moving. Human Interface and the Management of Information: Visual and Information Design, 337-353.
• 14.   Lan, M., & Kuang , Y. (2021). Evolutionary trends in fertility among Chinese women, 1990–2015. Reproductive Health.
• 15.   Lee,S., &HyojinChoi.(2015).Lowest-LowFertility and Policy Responses in South Korea. Low and lower fertility, 107-123.
• 16.   Levine,H.,&et al.(2017). Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis. Hum Reprod, 646-659.
• 17.   Liu, D.,&Raftery, A. (2020). How do education and family planning accelerate fertility decline? Popul Dev Rev, 409-441.
• 18.   Lv, M., & et al. (2021). Temporal trends in semen concentration and count among 327 373 Chinese healthy menfrom 1981 to2019: a systematic review. Hum Reprod, 751-775.
• 19.   Majumdar, K. (2021, February 28). The decision not to have a kid is personal—but the social pressure against the choice is all-pervasive. Retrieved from Bussiness Insider-India: https://www.businessinsider.in/ the life/article/the-decision-not-to-have-a-kid is-personal-but-the-social-pressure-against-the choice-is-all-pervasive/articleshow/81259181.cms
• 20.   Matta, A. (2019, April 23). Nowhere in India Are C Section Rates What They Should Be. THE SWDL.
• 21.   Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. (2022, February 08). Status of IMR and MMR in India. Retrieved from PIB: https://pib.gov.in/ PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1796436
• 22.   Mishra,P., & et al. (2018). Decline in seminal quality in Indian men over the last 37 years. Reproductive Biology and Endocrinology.
• 23.   Mohan, V. N., Shirisha, P., Vaidyanathan, G., & Muraleedharan , V. (2023). Variations in the prevalence of caesarean section deliveries in India between 2016 and 2021– an analysis of Tamil Nadu and Chhattisgarh. BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth.
• 24.   NDTV. (2024, March 21). India's Fertility Rate Down From 6.2 To Under 2 Since 1950: Lancet Study. Retrieved from www.ndtv.com/india: https:// www.ndtv.com/india-news/indias-fertility-rate down-from-6-2-to-under-2-since-1950-will-fall-to 1-3-by-2050-lancet-study-5282221
• 25.   Pandey, A. K., & et al. (2023). Alarming Trends of Cesarean Section—Time to Rethink: Evidence From a Large-Scale Cross-sectional Sample Survey in India. J Med Internet Res. doi:10.2196/41892
• 26.   Pandey, G. (2022, December 9). The Indian women calling themselves ‘proudly single’. Retrieved from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia india-63873033
• 27.   Pandey, S. (2019, December 3). Why these Indian couples are opting to not have kids. Retrieved from Times of India: https://timesofindia.indiatimes. com/life-style/parenting/getting-pregnant/why these-indian-couples-are-opting-to-not-have-kids/ articleshow/64135670.cms
• 28.   Pandit, A. (2020, July 1). Better education of women helped push total fertility rate down. Retrieved from timesofindia.indiatimes.com: https://timesofindia. indiatimes.com/india/better-education-of women-helped-push-total-fertility-rate-down/ articleshow/76720789.cms
• 29.   PIB. (2023). Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) Annual Report 2022-2023 Released-Increasing Trend in Labour Force Participation Rate and Worker Population Ratio,Constant Decrease in Unemployment Rate. Delhi: PIB. Retrieved from https://pib.gov.in/Press Release Iframe Page.aspx?PRID=1966154
• 30.   Quanbao-Jiang, S. Y., & Sánchez-Barricarte, J. J. (2022). China’s fertility change: an analysis with multiple measures. Population Health Metrics.
• 31.   Sharma, K. (2018, April 27). 27.5 million couples in India suffering from infertility. Retrieved from Times of India: https://timesofindia.indiatimes. com/life-style/parenting/getting-pregnant/27-5 million-couples-in-india-suffering-from-infertility/ articleshow/63938393.cms
• 32.   Swan, S., & Colino, S. (2021). Countdown: How Our Modern World is Threatening Sperm Counts, Altering Male and Female Reproductive Development and Imperiling the Future of the Human Race. New York, USA: Scribner.
• 33.   TheCensusofIndia.(2001). The Census of India. Govt of India.
• 34.   TheCensusofIndia.(2011). The Census of India. Govt of India.
• 35.   The Census of India. (2020). Population Proiections For India And States (2011-2036). The Census of India.
• 36.   The Economic Times. (2021, September 21). Muslims still have highest fertility rate among India's major religious groups, says Pew report. Retrieved from The Economic Times: https:// economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/ muslims-still-have-highest-fertility-rate-among indias-major-religious-groups-says-pew-report/ articleshow/86400196.cms
• 37.   The Economic Times. (2022, July 15). Proportion of unmarried youth rising, finds govt survey. Retrieved from The Economic Times: https://economictimes. indiatimes.com/news/india/proportion-of unmarried-youth-rising-finds-govt-survey/ articleshow/92878668.cms?from=mdr
• 38.   UNFPA. (2022, May). Child Marriage in India: Key Insights from the NFHS-5. Retrieved from india.unfpa. org: https://india.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/ pub-pdf/analytical_series_1_-_child_marriage_in_ india_-_insights_from_nfhs-5_final_0.pdf
• 39.   UNFPA. (2023). India’s Population Growth and Policy Implications. India: Population Foundation of India supported by UNFPA India.
• 40.   Varma, D. K. (2023). Declining Semen Quality In India: Implications, Factors And Interventions For Male Reproductive Health. Epra International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (IJMR), 150-158.
• 41.   Vollset, S., & et al. (2020). Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. Lancet, 1285-1306.
• 42.   WHO. (2021). Caesarean section rates continue to rise, amid growing inequalities in access. Retrieved from WHO: https://www.who.int/news/item/16 06-2021-caesarean-section-rates-continue-to-rise amid-growing-inequalities-in-access.

Data Sharing Statement

Funding